Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Pace Handicapping Harness Races

Author: Bill Peterson

Handicapping harness races using pace is a lot different than handicapping thoroughbred races using pace. Let me ask you this, "Are you trying to use pace to handicap harness races and if so, are you making any money?" While it makes sense to think that Standardbreds, because of their consistency, would be even more likely to conform to their own figures and racing styles, that isn't necessarily the case.

The problem of trying to determine where each horse will pace or trot is even more difficult on a half mile or five eighths mile track. With a few exceptions, such as a horse in the 1 post who loves to leave (get out first and stay in the lead) it is difficult to predict the actual order or position of the horse.

As anyone who handicaps harness races knows, the path that a horse spends most of the race in and the cover or lack of cover is very important and makes or breaks the horse. The problem isn't just the horse and where it might find itself as they all scramble for position at the beginning of the race, it is also the driver and where he or she might try to put the horse.

Let's look at a hypothetical situation to see just how complicated this is. First we will look at a one mile thoroughbred race. It can be around two turns or just one. It is fairly easy to see which horses have early speed and knowing that thoroughbreds are harder to control during a race, what you see is about what you get. A good jockey might be able to throttle back a little on a keen runner but basically, a thoroughbred gets out of the gate and takes the jockey for a ride.

So you determine which horse(s) will want the lead and which one(s) will be content to run off that pace set by the leaders. You determine the quarters of the race and figure where each runner will be. While a jockey may try to make his or her mount lay farther off the pace or get out quicker to challenge a leader, what you see is basically what you get.

A 90 pound jockey, perched with only his or her toes in the stirrups, just doesn't have that much control over a thousand pound thoroughbred. In other words, you determine pace in a thoroughbred race by looking at the horse, and then give a slight nod to the rider.

Pace handicapping a harness race is different because the larger driver, with feet braced in the stirrups of the bike, has much better control over an animal that is generally more tractable than a thoroughbred. Let's say our example is a one mile dash over a half mile track. The 1 has some early speed and we figure a first quarter in 30 flat. In this group it may put him in first position.

The 2 is a plodder and can't leave so it will get shuffled back but come with a rush at the end.

The 3 is good for about a 30 as well, so the question is, will the driver leave with it and try to take the lead in front of the 1 and if so, will the 1 come right back for the lead and thereby put the 3 in the garden spot?

But wait, before we figure that one out, the 4 has good early speed and we figure it for a 29.2 first quarter. Can it and will it leave and take the 1 spot? That depends upon whether the driver of the 3 decides to push for the lead or tries to tuck behind the 1 when the 2 drops back. We have only looked at 4 of the 8 horses and we already have too many possibilities to reasonable handicap and make assumptions about. So much of it depends upon how the race shapes up at the start and how each driver manages his or her pacer.

Therefore, unless the 1 has blinding early speed and will definitely leave and keep the lead, it is very hard to apply pace handicapping and position handicapping to a harness race.
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/harness_racing_system.html and get the truth.

Article Source: http://www.articlesbase.com/horse-racing-articles/pace-handicapping-harness-races-1356209.html